From Bull to Bear: the China Journey of a Wall Street Economist — with Stephen Roach

Stephen Roach, former chief economist at Morgan Stanley and current senior fellow at Yale, recounts his transition from a skeptical student activist during the Vietnam War to a veteran analyst of the Chinese economy. His career, defined by a commitment to data-driven, contrarian macro-analysis, includes pioneering real-time research platforms at Morgan Stanley and navigating the complexities of the China-Morgan Stanley joint venture, CICC. Initially a long-term bull on China, Roach now advocates for a more cautious outlook, citing structural headwinds such as a shrinking workforce, the dominance of low-productivity state-owned enterprises, and a lack of consumer-led stimulus. His experience reflects a broader shift in Western engagement with China, moving from collaborative dialogue to a strained relationship where the Chinese government increasingly restricts critical economic discourse, as evidenced by his recent exclusion from the China Development Forum.