06 Mar 2026
13m

Global Commodities: Oil and Gas Rocked by Conflict

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At Any Rate

The Strait of Hormuz conflict's impact on global energy markets is analyzed, focusing on oil and LNG. The discussion highlights that 20% of the global oil supply is stuck in the Strait, while for LNG, the figure is 17%, primarily affecting Qatar and the UAE. Concerns arise over storage capacity limitations, with Qatar having only a few days' worth of LNG storage, leading to potential production shutdowns. Proposed solutions, such as US military escorts and insurance coverage, are considered, but LNG lacks immediate alternatives, potentially leading to demand destruction and price adjustments. Otar Dgebuadze, leader of the European natural gas team, weighs in on the potential restart challenges for LNG production compared to oil, emphasizing the complexities of cooling and liquefaction processes.

Outlines

Part 1: Geopolitical Crisis, Strait Disruption

Part 2: Production Constraints, Storage Limits

Part 3: Recovery Timelines, Strategic Solutions

Part 4: Market Risks, Outlook

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