In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Brett Queener, Managing Director at Bonfire Ventures, to trace the origins of ARR and examine how new revenue models are reshaping B2B software. Drawing on Brett’s time at Salesforce and SmartRecruiters, they explore the shift from annual contracts to outcome-based pricing, what it means for forecasting and gtm strategy, and where the next major inflection points in SaaS are likely to emerge.

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SPONSORS:

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Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run

Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai

Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

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LINKS:

Brett on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettqueener/

Brett’s Substack: https://queener.substack.com/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

The Staffing Ratios Salesforce Used, with Brett Queener of Bonfire VC

https://youtu.be/lJVgstAXjJs

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:02:54 Welcome Brett & episode setup

00:03:51 On-prem software to SaaS

00:05:54 Salesforce & recurring revenue

00:07:15 On-prem costs & partner bloat

00:09:58 Contracts, control & comp shifts

00:14:15 Lock-in, renewals & SaaS drift

00:16:20 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | Tabs

00:19:48 From buying to hiring software

00:21:59 Agents change pricing & planning

00:25:59 Forecasting without ARR

00:28:03 Talent models break

00:29:45 Sponsors — Abacum | Brex | Metronome

00:33:01 Rethinking sales & comp

00:36:47 Selling by doing the job

00:40:50 The future role of sales

00:46:10 Zombie SaaS & category collapse

00:51:07 Context as the moat

00:56:07 Where AI hits next

00:58:44 Vertical AI & hidden TAMs

01:02:12 $1B startups vs mega rounds

01:05:48 Dilution, fund math & pressure

01:08:03 Choosing your founder path

Zombie companies, ARR, and broken SaaS economics | Brett Queener

Run the Numbers