We have all seen it. I have seen it a good number of times.

The café that was exemplary, sold, the new owner changes the menu, brings in a few kids to serve, and then wonders why six months later they are out of business.

As the hospitality people yet again told their tale of woe, and do not get me wrong, times have been tight and many an outlet has struggled, but as the new numbers got rolled out for the obligatory headline, it is probably time to get a bit honest about a sector that at times is its own worst enemy.

In the past 12 months, 2,564 hospitality outlets have closed. That’s an increase of 19%. As a stat it's miserable.

But ask yourself this: are all the cafes gone? No.

So is it possible we were over-cafe'd?

Is part of the problem with hospitality the fact anyone can join? You simply write a cheque, put an apron on, and you are in the hospitality game.

Do you know what you are doing? Are you interested in excelling or are you looking for an easy job and an easy job for your family?

Are you providing something new, or better, or different, or just adding to the collection of people who pedal paninis and bowls of cappuccino?

We talk a lot about the two step, or two stage, economy. Normally it's rural vs urban, Auckland vs Queenstown.

But there is another two step story: the people who are good at what they do and those who aren't.

This doesn’t just apply to hospitality. But hospitality is the standout example because it is one of those sectors where anyone can join and you can be anything from exceptional to useless, and a lot of things in-between.

In 1990 Paul Keating, then Australian Treasurer, famously said this is the recession we had to have. Australia had not known a recession and had always been the lucky country.

But part of the argument was a recession cleans out the hopeless. It tidies an economy up.

The strong survive because they hustle and adjust. The weak wither and die and out of the renewal starts something afresh.

A lot of people liquidating only tells you a fraction of the story and the story is supposed to make you feel bad.

It shouldn’t. It's life. If you are good and determined and work hard in hospitality or anywhere else, you'll be fine.

If you are really determined, you will be more than fine.

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Mike's Minute: Are we over-cafe'd?

The Mike Hosking Breakfast