I have been wondering when the penny would drop and yesterday might have been it.

There were two stories on Chris Hipkins' problems with the Māori Party.

For all the energy the media wants to put into Chris Luxon and his future, the very obvious other side of the coin, if they ever wanted to explore it, lies in the very real issue for Labour in even coming close to putting together the numbers for a government.

The genesis of the coverage came out of the Takuta Ferris post on all the "Asians and blacks" and other racist bile he managed to pedal in the lead up to last Saturday's debacle of a by-election.

The Māori Party had to apologise, and obviously Hipkins had to face the growing reality that these folks are crazy and not remotely interested in being helpful, useful, or part of a coalition.

Why this hasn’t occurred to more in the media before now, I have no idea, other than to offer the suggestion it may just be a bit inconvenient for them and their agendas and its far easier to help build on the so-called demise of the Prime Minister.

But yesterday we got there at last, through simple questions: how does Labour even begin to form a deal with the Māori Party?

This is one for their coverage of the polls too. You will note polls are presented as simple centre-left/centre-right numbers.

A collection of parties added up and the headline is formed from the result of the maths. In this week's Curia poll, there was to be a change of Government, apparently.

But each time it involves the assumption, and what an assumption it is, that Labour and the Greens and the Māori Party are one group and no such thing has ever happened.

Let me make this prediction right now: it never will.

So add the numbers of likely groupings and you are left with Labour and, maybe, the Greens. Do they get to Government? No, they don’t.

So Hipkins, given it's his issue, not the Māori Party's, has to answer the very simple question: will you work with the Māori Party, and if so, how? What jobs do they get? What policies of theirs are you implementing?

Given he can't answer that and, dare I suggest, won't, he needs to grow his party support to about 40%, which he can't, and won't, either.

Which is why he is not winning the election next year.

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Mike's Minute: The issue Hipkins has with the Māori Party

The Mike Hosking Breakfast