At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm

This podcast episode delves into the topic of recessions, examining the Sahm Rule as an indicator for predicting economic downturns. Despite the rule's historically accurate performance, the episode questions its reliability in the current economic climate due to disruptions caused by COVID-19. The discussion emphasizes the significance of monitoring the labor market, particularly unemployment rates and labor force participation, as crucial indicators for assessing the economy's health.