This is the fourth post in my series on Anthropics. The previous one is Anthropical probabilities are fully explained by difference in possible outcomes.

Introduction.

If there is nothing special about anthropics, if it's just about correctly applying standard probability theory, why do we keep encountering anthropical paradoxes instead of general probability theory paradoxes? Part of the answer is that people tend to be worse at applying probability theory in some cases than in the others.

But most importantly, the whole premise is wrong. We do encounter paradoxes of probability theory all the time. We are just not paying enough attention to them, and occasionally attribute them to anthropics.

Updateless Dilemma and Psy-Kosh's non-anthropic problem

As an example, let's investigate Updateless Dilemma, introduced by Eliezer Yudkowsky in 2009.

Let us start with a (non-quantum) logical coinflip - say, look at the heretofore-unknown-to-us-personally 256th binary digit of pi, where the choice [...]

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Outline:

(00:49) Updateless Dilemma and Psy-Koshs non-anthropic problem

(03:58) Solving the Problem

(07:14) The source of a paradox

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First published:
December 6th, 2023

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8rWP3ZvHe2HkQd53o/anthropical-paradoxes-are-paradoxes-of-probability-theory

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Anthropical Paradoxes are Paradoxes of Probability Theory” by Ape in the coat

LessWrong (30+ Karma)