If you believe that,—

a) a civilization like ours is likely to survive into technological incredibleness, and

b) a technologically incredible civilization is very likely to create ‘ancestor simulations’,

—then the Simulation Argument says you should expect that you are currently in such an ancestor simulation, rather than in the genuine historical civilization that later gives rise to an abundance of future people.

Not officially included in the argument I think, but commonly believed: both a) and b) seem pretty likely, ergo we should conclude we are in a simulation.

I don’t know about this. Here's my counterargument:

‘Simulations’ here are people who are intentionally misled about their whereabouts in the universe. For the sake of argument, let's use the term ‘simulation’ for all such people, including e.g. biological people who have been grown in Truman-show-esque situations.
In the long run [...]

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First published:
March 4th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/di4Dhho4xZ4x9ABna/are-we-so-good-to-simulate

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Are we so good to simulate?” by KatjaGrace

LessWrong (30+ Karma)