Crossposted by habryka after asking Eliezer whether I could post it under his account

i.

"Ignore all these elaborate, abstract, theoretical predictions," the Spokesperson for Ponzi Pyramid Incorporated said in a firm, reassuring tone. "Empirically, everyone who's invested in Bernie Bankman has received back 144% of what they invested two years later."

"That's not how 'empiricism' works," said the Epistemologist. "You're still making the assumption that --"

"You could only believe that something different would happen in the future, if you believed in elaborate theoretical analyses of Bernie Bankman's unobservable internal motives and internal finances," said the spokesperson for Ponzi Pyramid Incorporated. "If you are a virtuous skeptic who doesn't trust in overcomplicated arguments, you'll believe that future investments will also pay back 144%, just like in the past. That's the prediction you make if you predict based purely on empirical observations, instead of theories about a future nobody [...]

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Outline:

(00:11) i.

(10:06) ii.

(31:23) iii.

(39:41) iiv.

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First published:
March 14th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LvKDMWQ3yLG9R3gHw/empiricism-as-anti-epistemology

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“‘Empiricism!’ as Anti-Epistemology” by Eliezer Yudkowsky

LessWrong (30+ Karma)